NFL Rookie Drafting Strategy
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison is the most surefire rookie there is. He steps in immediately to the WR1 slot for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have a strong offense including a top QB in Kyler Murray and a good run game with James Conner. He's already a good pick in redraft just about anywhere from the back of the first round.
Malik Nabers
Nabers is quickly becoming overrated by many. He is in a good situation, immediately stepping into the WR1 spot for the Giants. However, the Giants offense hasn't produced many upper-tier WR's since Eli Manning retired. He's going around players like DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp. He's not going to out produce any of those guys.
Caleb Williams
Williams couldn't have landed in a better position. He is coming into a team that sports two great veteran WRs Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and added a fellow rookie in the draft WR Rome Odunze. The Bears also added a strong RB in DeAndre Swift. He has weapons all around him and all the tools in the man purse. He's worth his adp if for nothing else than a shot in the dark since he's going around the 15th QB taken.
Rome Odunze
Odunze doesn't land in the greatest spot in Chicago. He will likely be WR3 for the Bears behind veteran stars, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. However, this team could be pass heavy and Odunze will likely draw the worst defender of the three. He's being drafted around the middle of round 8 with other dart throws like Keon Coleman, Christian Watson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I prefer Coleman/Watson to Odunze. I prefer Odunze to JSN although it is very close.
Jonathan Brooks
Brooks lands easily the best spot of any rookie RB with high draft capital. The Panthers have been a revolving door of RBs for years since CMC injuries and leaving in trade. He is coming off an ACL tear which hasn't been that big of a deal for young players in recent years. He's going around the back of the 6th round with guys like Nick Chubb, Jaylen Warren, and Tony Pollard. Outside of how Chubb bounces back, Brooks will outproduce these guys.
Trey Benson
Benson lands in a relatively good spot compared to a lot of other rookie RBs. The Cardinals do have a really good veteran starter in James Conner but Conner has missed at least two games in every season he's been a pro. Benson is going around the middle of round 8 in drafts with guys like Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, and Brian Robinson jr. All 4 of these backs are in similar positions with each having a veteran starter in front of them. I like to take my chance on the rookie, Benson, with real life draft capital.
Xavier Worthy
Worthy seems like he landed in a great spot in Kansas City but just because the offense is good doesn't mean it's a good spot. The Chiefs just signed Hollywood Brown who is a veteran and arguably better at the same things Worthy does. Worthy is going around the beginning of the 7th round with players like his teammates Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. DeAndre Hopkins is also being drafted around this slot. Worthy won't outproduce any of those other picks in this area.
Brock Bowers
Bowers lands in a spot with a target monster Davante Adams and a QB situation that is completely up in the air. But even with those two factors Bowers has been getting excellent reviews at camp and should become relevant immediately. He's being drafted around Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, and Dallas Goedert. This is a pretty good spot for him so if you feel like taking a shot on a rookie he's an ok pick.
Ladd McConkey
McConkey lands in about as good of a situation as possible for a rookie WR. There is no obvious WR1 for the Chargers and they possess one of the best QBs in the NFL who has provided plenty of reliable WR options. His competition is 2nd year Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, and DJ Chark. His ADP is the back end of the 7th round with players like Christian Watson, Diontae Johnson, and DeAndre Hopkins. In the late 7th you're probably taking a shot on a league winner type, you'd be set to pick Watson or McConkey of these options.